Two Prints In One Release
Core in line at 3.3%. Headline hot at 3.8%. The Fed writes from Core. Most household budgets feel Headline.
The deal closes tomorrow. Lock it in now!
1. Two Numbers, One Release
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the April Personal Consumption Expenditures price index at 8:30 this morning. Core PCE printed 3.3% year over year, in line with consensus and the highest reading since October 2023. Headline PCE printed 3.8% year over year, the highest reading since May 2023.
The release contained both numbers. The Federal Reserve writes policy from one of them. Most household budgets feel the other.
The market read the Core print as the actionable number. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record at 7,520. The Nasdaq joined it. The curve disagreed. 10-year Treasury yields closed at 4.67%, the 30-year at 5.18%, both fresh 2026 highs.
Three readings of the same release. The equity tape says fine. The Fed’s preferred gauge says manageable. The long end of the curve says no.
