The Week That Tests the Call
The Beam · July 1, 2026
We wrote about this on Sunday. This week the data starts coming in.
The Setup
We wrote about this on Sunday. The slowdown that consensus spent all of 2025 waiting on never showed up in the 2026 data, and a reacceleration did, and it arrived carrying the one feature the slowdown camp never penciled in, which is inflation. Higher-for-longer stopped being a forecast the Fed was floating and started to look like the setup the real economy was handing it, print by print.
We also laid out what we were watching to know if we had it wrong. Three data releases, all of them this week, and the first one lands today.
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