The Lighthouse Macro Chartbook
June 9, 2026 · Macro, Illuminated.
June opened with the market doing the one thing it only does at turns. It started sorting. A real-rate regime, the ten-year real yield up near the high end of its fifteen-year range, does not hit every asset the same way. It crushed gold. It carried the long end. And underneath a tape that looked calm, the thrust that had been carrying it quietly faded.
This is the board as we read it heading into the June inflation print and Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in the chair. The growth data is firmer than the mood, with orders and borrowing both up. Yet breadth healed on the surface while its momentum rolled over, defense bounced, and credit is still asleep at the tights while the labor data cools one print at a time. The deficit does not close, so the long end carries the weight. And for the first time in a long while, cash pays you to wait.
Forty-eight charts, twelve pillars, and the live book at the end. None of it is a forecast. It is a map of where the weight sits right now, and what would have to change for the call to change.
A word on cadence before the board. The May book never shipped, the calendar got away from us, and we would rather name that than pretend the gap was by design. This one puts us back on the rhythm.
