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The Barrel Fell. The Pump Didn’t.

The Beam · June 18, 2026

Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT's avatar
Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT
Jun 19, 2026
∙ Paid

Crude rolled over. Your tank didn’t get the memo.

West Texas Intermediate ran from $57 in January to almost $115 by April. Then it rolled back over, and it sits near $85 today. The market exhaled. Crisis averted, energy normalizing, nothing to see here.

Except the pump never normalized. Gasoline is still $4.05 a gallon, a few cents off its May high, while crude has given back a quarter of its peak. The barrel and the pump have come unstuck, and that gap is the whole story. We think the market is grading the wrong number.

Figure 1
Figure 1: WTI crude, $/barrel (log). Up 48% YTD even after round-tripping off the April peak.

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