Ninety-Nine And Sixty-Five
The Beam · August 18
The Setup
The ten-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.68%. Measured against every daily reading since 2010, that puts it at the 99th percentile of its own range, which is another way of saying there is almost no post-crisis session where owning a ten-year paid you better than it does right now. The obvious reading, the one that has been sitting in the commentary all month, is that the bond market has decided inflation is coming back and is charging accordingly.
The ten-year breakeven sits at 2.28%. That is the 66th percentile. Middle of the range. Unremarkable.
Both of those are true at the same time, and they cannot both be describing the same worry.
The Birthday Week, since we’re here. For my 33rd, the tiers are unbundled through Sunday. Research Only is $335 for the year, every Beacon, Beam, Horizon, and Chartbook. The Complete Bundle is $500 and adds the Pharos Terminal, the 60-indicator deck, and the live Crosscurrents book, before it moves to $750 on August 24. The window closes Sunday night at 11:59 ET and then it’s gone.
RESEARCH ONLY, 33% OFF!
RESEARCH + PHAROS
