Exactly. ISM prices paid at 59.0 is companies hedging tariffs, not demand. The inventory build is a timing trade.
The real question: what happens when the shock hits? Does it normalize gradually (margins compress) or reverse sharply (demand wall)? That’s where capex intentions matter. If capex rolls over while inventory is still hot, they’re hedging, not expanding.
Important to know which lever gets pulled and why the downstream impact matters.
Exactly. ISM prices paid at 59.0 is companies hedging tariffs, not demand. The inventory build is a timing trade.
The real question: what happens when the shock hits? Does it normalize gradually (margins compress) or reverse sharply (demand wall)? That’s where capex intentions matter. If capex rolls over while inventory is still hot, they’re hedging, not expanding.
Important to know which lever gets pulled and why the downstream impact matters.